Spring Sprung and We Were Far Flung

Wow, some spring!  It snowed almost every day.  I'm not kidding.  Here's a photo from our office on May 19th.

And because Durango's weather is like that sometimes in the spring, it's the one time of year that we try to get out of town and go places like:



The Brittish Virgin Islands



The Colorado River

Boca Grande, Florida

Sand Key, Florida

Just thought I'd share a few of our off-season adventures with you.  Now you know why it's taken so long for us to update this blog.  The real estate market was notably, and not surprisingly rough for a couple of years, and our travel was limited.  We had some make-up work to do, promises to be kept to the kids for trips that had been postponed.  And the market has contributed it's part.  In fact, it's been my best year in the business, so far...

What does that say about the market?  Well, though I'd like to claim that I'm some kind of real estate savant, and that all of my hard work and effort pays dividends, I think our ability to do a little more traveling has more to do with the fact that pricing coupled with interest rate affordability has inspired more sales than we've seen in many years.  In fact, we've been saying that much of the inventory is going to go away and that there will be little left it it's place except higher prices once that happens.  Well, it's happening.  And with that, I give you our annual real estate forecast from the Wells Group.  It's been eleven years since the Wells Group began sharing their in-house research and analysis with their customers, and this year we've added some videos from area experts to really spice it up.  (Yours truly even has a cameo).  Follow the link here if you're interested in the forecast:

Wells Group 2011 Forecast

The password is:  knowledge

If you blow it up to a screen size image by using the full-screen icon on the bottom right of the movie, it'll be a lot easier to see the charts and pause on those that are of most interest to you.  I'm happy to provide the underlying analysis for any of the information you see herein.

Speaking of travel, it's easier to get here now.  American Airlines now flies directly from Dallas.  You read that right.  Since Texas has reemerged as one of our most dominant markets (they were hurt far less by the recent economy than most of our other markets), we're expecting direct flights from Dallas to have any even greater impact on our market.  I'd estimate it we'll have 15% higher sales in 2012 with this successful flight in place.  We've seen this round-trip ticket listed for as low as $350. 

Check their rates  out here:

http://www.aa.com/homePage.do

Now United, Frontier, American West and American Airlines fly into Durango.

In other good news, Men's Journal Magazine named Durango one of it's "Most Liveable Cities and Towns in America" recently.  Check out the link here:

http://www.mensjournal.com/in-the-april-issue-jake-gyllenhaal

Durango is also featured in the May, 2011 edition of Bike Magazine seen here:

http://www.bikemag.com/magazine/may-2011/

I have a PDF of the Bike Magazine article if you're interested.

Summer just started here.  We really couldn't wait, never can.  It's by far our favorite time of year.  See our posting last year about this time when we listed the "Top 10 Things to do in Durango in the Summer."  Here's a link for your convenience:

http://wellsgroupmountainresort.blogspot.com/2010/06/top-10-things-to-do-in-durango-during.html

The nicest homesite in Two Dogs, Durango’s premier mountain luxury community. 9 acres, Elbert Creek runs through it, views of Electra Lake, 3 distinct and exceptionally buildable homesites:

http://cren.fnismls.com/publink/default.aspx?GUID=bd253455-e997-44d0-b869-d1904d65bdae&Report=Yes

The finest luxury home we’ve ever seen in the market at the lowest price per foot we’ve ever seen for luxury in the market ($180/foot). Already priced at $1.5 million under actual construction costs. Views of the Needles, Engineer and Spud Mountains. 3 acres, backs National Forest:

http://cren.fnismls.com/publink/default.aspx?GUID=5be7810e-3d28-45bf-b037-21863767f6e3&Report=Yes

Lastly, here’s a timely article from the Wall Street Journal titled, “Why It’s Time to Buy.”

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304563104576361522020024248.html


Summer in Colorado in general is pretty extraordinary.  We like to get out around the state to check-out the scenery.  Here are some photos we took within driving distance over the last few weekends.  We'll be happy to help you find any of these places:

Have a great summer!

And now for some cold hard facts...

We know, we know, real estate messages can be boring.  We get bored.  Really, we do.  But we still follow the markets daily because it's critical for us to have a handle on what is happening and how it impacts our part of the world.  It's one of the ways we set ourselves apart.  We'll try to toss a nice photo in once in a while as distraction.

Sunlight on a Peak at the Crest of Coal Bank Pass

We've been saying for quite a while in this blog that the perfect storm of low interest rates and historically low pricing were going to generate sales, and ultimately the return of higher prices and lower inventory.  Our prediction has come true. 

The Durango Area Association of Realtors recently released annual statistics and the Durango resort condos and townhomes appreciated substantially, over 10% in 2010.  Other parts of our market are still seeing some softening in pricing, but these two areas are our specialty, and they are the areas where we predicted buyers would ultimately recognize their one-in-a-lifetime opportunity, swoop in and take advantage and leave lower inventories in their wake.  All of the above is happening with the exception of the market for raw land and over million dollar homes.  Here's the statistical report if you want to take a look for yourself:

http://www.durangorealtor.com/images/Statistics/2010/Annual2010StatisticalRelease.pdf

Many of our clients are still wary of engaging in the market, even in the face of what has now been a long and continuous recovery here.  We hear every day that the market isn't going to recover yet.  We hear this from people who don't watch our market as closely as we do.  Real estate markets are all local, and most of our news media is national.  So, if you're interested in real estate in a certain location, you'd be wise to find a reliable source of accurate information and follow it locally.  We think we're a pretty good source in the Durango area.  If you follow this blog, or our Facebook page at:

Facebook Link - where we post interesting and impactful news articles and only the very best priced real estate opportunities in our area, whether they are our listings or not.

or our Twitter page at:

Twitter Link - which mirrors our Facebook updates,

then you'll stay current on our market. 

Here's a serious newsflash about the Durango resort area market - The Christmas holiday period is often a very telling period of time for the health of the resort market.  It was a blowout this year, with more sales in the luxury slopeside condo and townhome world than we can remember, even in the best of times.  If you were waiting to buy a slopeside whole-share Purgatory Lodge unit, you waited too long.  They are all sold.  Expect to pay 50 - 75k more the next time we see a resale.  Same goes for other projects at the mountain.  Most of the new developments there are now only holding one or two more units in inventory.  The buyers that are buying now are getting deals we haven't seen in this market in our entire history with it, especially if you factor in the low interest rates they're paying on their loans.  When the inventory is gone pricing will likely continue to climb, but at a faster pace.  Last year 10% - next year?  And interest rates are going up.  We've said it before, but it bears repeating - a 1% rise in interest rates is a 10% rise in the overall cost of the home.  So, if the market goes up 10% next year, and interest rates go up 1% (very likely) you've lost 20% in your price opportunity.  We expect to see about six to twelve more months of opportunities for our buyers in most segments, and then we expect the market for townhomes, condos, and select single-family homes to shift back toward a Seller's market.  It won't just happen overnight, but the shift is already palpable, and we can see it coming.  Sellers have been in such a weak position for three years or more, and there is light at the end of the tunnel - unless you're selling land.  Sorry land owners - no light out there.  We will see a depletion of inventory in the single-family market with relatively few nice homes available, and the lowest number of building permits being pulled historically.  Buyers who would have traditionally been interested in the single-family market have been buying in the luxury condo market because the deals were too good to pass up.  There's only a handful of those deals left.   Once they're gone, those buyers will likely start looking again in the single-family market and that inventory will start to be reduced (I'm thinking this whole cycle I'm describing right now is a year and a half away), and then when there are only a few singe-family choices, land stands a chance.  But it's last in line.  It's two years before we see any pace in land sales.  But holy smokes, if you want to buy land - this may be the opportunity of your lifetime.  Land deals have gotten ridiculous.  You can't even peg the prices to anything relevant historically.  It's that low.  And builders here, like everywhere, are hungry for opportunities.  Costs of construction are lower than we've seen them in many years.




Chris's son Dylan Performing an Inadvisable Sledding Trick

 In short, if you're interested in buying most types of property in this area, your opportunity to get the best price is getting very limited.  If you're interested in selling most types of property in this area, we would recommend you consider listing this late spring.  We think we're going to see some good sales and even some opportunity to raise prices in the coming year.

Let's face it, it's more fun to write and read about ski runs and fun things to do in Durango, but we know this is a healthy part of the information you deserve from us.  We promise we won't always be on a diet of cold hard facts, but you can count on us if you ever need to know.