That's right, snow, lots of it throughout the month of October. There was even a morning when I woke up in my home in downtown Durango to several inches of the stuff, enough to force a premature donning of snowboots for the morning dog walk and a postponement (thankfully) of the morning run. It's been such a good early season for snow that Silverton Mountain opened for skiing on October 6, 2009. This photo was taken, unbelievably, on that day. And so it begins. Don't think there isn't part of me that doesn't want to leave for a warm-weather climate this time of year. Fortunately Durango notches over 300 days of sunshine and has always boasted the most amazingly comfortable skiing climate in the Rockies. I grew up skiing in Summit County where the windchill-factor almost always seemed to register somewhere in the negatives (I remember skiing one day at Vail at -40, and wondering the entire time why on earth I had actually paid to do that). In fact, Sumit County was the last place I heard anyone refer to "windchill-factor." Wolf Creek Ski Area is also open for limited skiing already - this is early and very promising. I wrote an article a while ago about the extreme skiing in Silverton. Check it out here:
http://www.insideoutsidemag.com/issues/2006/May_June/Unguided_and_Unhinged/
With the falling snow, we've got falling prices to announce. The Durango Area Association of Realtors recently released their third-quarter cumulative statistics and the report included plenty of negatives, as far as median price change went. Durango In-Town Homes, Durango Country Homes, and Resort Condo categories all logged median price decreases over 2008. You may want to save this link to view this recent and future statistical analysis put out by our local board of Realtors: http://www.durangorealtor.com/Area%20Statistics.htm. What is perhaps more interesting to note is that the price decrease is lessening with the release of each subsequent quarter's data. So our prediction of a recovery in this market is coming true. Also, Durango area condos showed a significant price increase over 2008 in this recent cumulative measure. It's common for the low end to recover faster as it's accessible to the engine that drives real estate recoveries - first time homebuyers. In short, opportunity is still knocking for buyers in this market, just a little softer, and not much longer. Of course, we'll say this until we're blue in the face and the majority of our customers will choose to buy somewhere between the middle and top of the real estate market recovery, if they follow historical trends at all. It makes sense that fewer folks are willing to take advantage of economic opportunity in a time of personal economic uncertainty. But every day more and more people are taking advantage of those opportunities, and Shazam!! (sorry, always wanted to write that somewhere), one day we'll be well beyond the recovery.
Here's a prediction: But first - something we've been saying for a long time - The Baby Boomers will drive the 2nd home markets in 2010 and beyond. It's an undeniable demographic trend that our industry has been writing about and anticipating for over a decade. It's based on a simple set of premises. They are:
- Baby Boomers are a giant population in the United States.
- They are the beneficiaries of most of the post-war growth in wealth in the world.
- They are further the beneficiaries of the largest post-industrial wealth transfer in US history as the previous generation gives way to them.
- Every Baby Boomer needs a 2nd Home. Well, perhaps that's a little self-serving. Let's just say that the studies out there on Baby Boomer trends indicate that they tend to value some of the intangibles that tangible real property in second home locations offer (family, lifestyle, togetherness, outdoors experiences, etc...) and they recognize investment property as an important component of their wealth generation portfolio.
Baby Boomers are already having their impact on the new real estate economy. Read all about it in this recent Newsweek article:
http://www.newsweek.com/id/221105
One of the things our "new economy" and the new economists involved in evaluating it are noticing is that the Baby Boomers are being more careful about what they spend on housing and more conservative on things like the size of their homes, and the relative luxuries involved. Durango has always offered two very distinct things to the 2nd home buying market beyond its world-class beauty and over-abundance of lifestyle and recreational opportunity:
1. Value
2. An escape from the ostentation of other resort communities. The words you most often hear in association with Durango are: genuine, real-west, down-to-earth, welcoming, warm-hearted, family-friendly
So here's my belabored prediction: The Baby Boomers are still coming. I see and work with them every day. Maybe they've changed their approach as the recent economic tumult enters the American bloodstream. I think that Durango is the kind of place that will fit their adjusted second home and lifestyle desires best. Interestingly, Durango suffered far less compared to other resort markets around the country during the downturn (some of them don't even exist anymore. Just Google the word Tamarack). My prediction is that the next ten years will see unprecedented growth in value in the communities we serve because of these trends.
I'll bet 3rd quarter 2010 will see an end to negative mean price in Durango and the surrounding areas. Who wants to bet?
Here are some other recent articles that may be of interest to you:
CNN/Money, Existing Homesales Rebound to Highest Level in Two Years, October 23, 2009
http://money.cnn.com/2009/10/23/real_estate/existing_home_sales/index.htm?postversion=2009102311
CNN/Money, What Housing Bust? Most States Posted Home Price Gains, October 21, 2009
http://money.cnn.com/2009/10/21/real_estate/what_housing_bust/index.htm?postversion=2009102115
The New York Times, A Bounce? Indeed. A Boom? Not Yet, October 10, 2009
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/11/business/economy/11view.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=bounce&st=cse
The Wall Street Journal, Yes, the Housing Market Has Rarely Looked Better, September 2009
http://coloradosecondhome.com/WallStreetJournalHousingMarketRareyLookedBetter.aspx
Business Week, Business Outlook - A Housing Recover with a Solid Foundation, October 29, 2009
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/09_45/b4154016692288.htm
Cheers, and think snow!
